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Speaking at the conference, Governor Nguyen Thi Hong assessed that the world economy recently had many unpredictable fluctuations that greatly affected the domestic economy. Vietnam's economy has a large openness, production depends heavily on imported materials while world prices are high and may continue to increase if world inflation is not under control. Besides, according to international assessment, inflation expectations for Vietnam are relatively high. With the task of administering monetary policy, contributing to controlling inflation, stabilizing the macro-economy, and supporting the recovery of economic growth, the SBV cannot be subjective with the evolution of inflation; and can not only control inflation this year but also coming years. That is a consistent long-term goal.
Regarding the implementation of credit activities in 2022, Ms. Ha Thu Giang - Deputy Director of the Credit Department in charge of economic sectors said that in the first 8 months of the year, the SBV directed capital flows to the manufacturing sectors, business production, priority areas, supporting the socio-economic recovery. As a result, credit in all sectors has increased from the beginning of 2022 and is higher than the same period in 2021 and 2020. In the coming time, the SBV will continue to focus credit on production, business, and priority areas according to the policy of the Government with a reasonable interest rate to ensure the safety of loan capital, to support the recovery of socio-economic development; continue to strictly control credit risks in potential areas in order to ensure the safety of the system according to the decisions of the SBV. Also, it is necessary to balance capital sources for lending to efficient production and business projects, especially sectors and fields that are supported with interest rates as prescribed in Decree No.31; continue to effectively implement solutions to support and remove difficulties for customers under the direction of the SBV and credit policy programs under the direction of the Government, etc.
Speaking at the conference, Mr. Nguyen Van Du - Acting Chief Inspectorof the BSA assessed that most of the industries with high credit markets are also industries with good growth. However, some industries have low growth but credit balance continues to increase such as real estate, consumption, etc. The credit management policy of the SBV does not prohibit credit in real estate, but it is necessary to be careful and have a reasonable credit portfolio structure to limit risks, especially in the context of great credit pressure.
Credit management of the SBV is appropriate and consistent
At the conference, the majority of credit assessments assessed the credit management of the SBV in recent years as appropriate. It is said that the credit limit tool cannot be omitted yet. The credit ratio of 14% in 2022 is appropriate in the context of post-epidemic economic recovery and is higher than the previous year. At the same time, it is necessary to have an allocation ratio according to the quality of operations of credit institutions to avoid the equalization; and separating information to each credit institution is necessary because the classification according to the rating cannot be disclosed to the public, affecting the competition among credit institutions. Some people also say that if the credit exchange rate is high, it will lead to the risk of interest rate racing among credit institutions and the safety of the system.
International organizations recommend Vietnam and the SBV to control credit limits. Recently, the World Bank, the IMF, or other global credit rating agencies have all warned about Vietnam's credit-to-GDP ratio and the high ratio of total assets of domestic banks to GDP. Moody's recently raised Vietnam's national credit rating from Ba3 to Ba2, but continues to warn about these ratios, which are one of the highest among countries with ratings of Ba and Baa. Not to mention the short-term pressure on exchange rates, interest rates, the problem of raising capital of banks not keeping up with the scale of credit growth... is also warned by international organizations (IMF, WB, Fitch Ratings, S
